Nuclear Illusions: Argentina and Brazil

Nuclear Illusions: Argentina and Brazil

By John Redick (November 1995)


In his study of nuclear forbearance in Argentina and Brazil, John Redick demonstrates how early bilateral nuclear policy cooperation in opposition to the global non-proliferation regime over time paved the way for the two states' acceptance of multilateral non-proliferation mechanisms. Although neither country ever possessed nuclear weapons nor sufficient nuclear materials to produce them, both had significant nuclear facilities with military potential. In addition, the two countries subscribed to independent nuclear policies that put them in fundamental opposition to the global non-proliferation regime. However, rather than succumbing to a costly and potentially dangerous nuclear competition, Argentina and Brazil abandoned their unique "nuclear theology" and integrated their respective nuclear programs into a bilateral control and inspection regime. Although domestic factors contributed significantly to the evolution of this bilateral nuclear confidence-building process, Redick concludes that the future of the Argentine-Brazilian commitment to the non-proliferation regime will be greatly influenced by the support and actions of the nuclear-weapon states.